Polymarket's primary holders of Trump stock have changed, with 'zxgngl' outperforming 'Fredi9999' after heavy buying on Monday morning as odds narrowed over the weekend. On Sunday, Trump's lead narrowed from 65% to 54% as the whale pressure eased.
Activity appears to be declining as whales are persistently buying Trump stocks regardless of price, leading to a narrowing of Trump's lead over Harris. On Sunday, the odds had increased to 54% for Trump and 46% for Harris, but by Monday the trend had reversed slightly.
As of this writing, Trump's odds are 57% and Harris's 42%.
Several whales increased their positions in October, consistently buying up the order book even when the price reached $0.66. However, many whales were reluctant to increase their positions as the price fell by $0.12 over the weekend.
Mr. Harris' main backer, Layer, bet more than $4 million on Harris after his price soared from $0.33 to $0.47. 'Leier', who had only placed $29,993 on Harris at $0.34, decided to increase his position after the odds had shrunk considerably. As of this writing, “leier” has unrealized losses of $416,013.
However, on Monday morning, “zxgngl'' and “larpas'' took advantage of the opportunity to buy stocks at discounted prices, helping to push Trump's stock up by about $0.03.
Many of the top holders are facing unrealized losses after aggressive buying over the past month. Only “larpas'' and “zxgngl'' have purchased stocks in the past 5 days, while the others have refrained from opening new positions for up to 2 weeks.
Username Wallet Address Participation Position Value Profit/Loss Trading Volume Trading Market zxgngl0xd235…0f29October 2024 $12,948,153.76-$895,068.71$21,465,527.632GCottrell930x94a4…6356October 2024 $7,670,5 8,226.10$13,282,293.061Theo40x5668…5839October 2024$14,899,351.39-$2,890,014.72$40,277,373.1513PrincessCaro0x8119…f88720249 Month$6,190,145.31$80,957.34$23,520,809.9514Michie0xed22…3dd0October 2024$3,761,940.18$131,874.00$8,450,962.7713larpas0xe43c…01adJul 2024$4, 452,9 87.72- $62,387.08$8,498,926.9424Fredi99990x1f2d…d0cfJune 2024$16,350,230.30$96,221.14$76,611,316.9145
Currently, the total profit and loss of President Trump's top seven candidates is -$4,676,643.
Trump supporters such as zxgngl, who joined Polymarket in October, held positions worth $12,948,153 with a profit/loss of -$895,068 and a trading volume of $21,465,527 across the two markets. Similarly, 'GCottrell93' has a position worth $7,670,524 with a loss of $1,138,226 and 'Theo4' has a position worth $14,899,351 with a loss of $2,890,014.
As previously reported, whales such as 'Fredi9999' and 'PrincessCaro' actively supported Trump's odds through high-frequency trading throughout the last month. At one point, it executed more than 1,600 trades with a total value of more than $4 million within 24 hours, greatly influencing market trends. One of the newest entrants, “Theo4,” quickly became one of the top holders, placing over $12 million in high-frequency bets on Trump within three days.
Market depth changes due to concerns over election certification
Market depth data previously showed that there was a lack of liquidity around the current price level, with only about $4 million in sell orders between the current price and $0.99. This thin order backlog suggests that relatively modest buy or sell orders can have a large impact on the perception of President Trump's odds in polymarkets.
However, the order book has changed significantly, with a $12 million sell order now trading below $0.99. Additionally, a new market has emerged to bet on who will take office amid concerns about whether there will be legal challenges to the election results. Traders are increasingly opening sell orders below $1 in order to profit if the market faces a final resolution issue.
For example, if Trump odds rise to $0.93, $5 million of liquidity will be sold and users will choose to take profits before the outcome is officially confirmed. If Mr. Harris' odds rise to $0.98, Mr. Harris will reach the $5 million level. According to Polymarket's terms, the market resolves.
“When the Associated Press, FOX and NBC all call the election for the same candidate. Even if that doesn't happen, the market will remain open until Inauguration Day and a decision will be made on who will take office.”
Will the Trump whales take advantage of the cost savings to support the former president for tomorrow's election, or will the polymarket odds move closer to poll numbers that deem the race close?
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