Important takeouts:
The BTC reached $97,900 due to rising demand from institutional investors, but futures pricing shows traders are not confident in sustainable gatherings.
Macroeconomic risks and global trade tensions have stifled bullish sentiment despite the $3.6 billion influx of spot BTC ETFs.
The BTC option is lean and bullish, suggesting that major players expect upside down, but their attention continues to lower leverage use.
Bitcoin (BTC) escaped from its tough trading range of $93,000 to $95,600 on May 1 after a six-day restricted move. Despite reaching its highest price at $97,930 in 10 weeks, the sentiment remains neutral, according to the BTC derivatives indicator. This price measure came along with a significant net inflow into the US spot exchange trade Bitcoin fund (ETF).
Part of the disappointment among traders can be attributed to the ongoing global tariff disputes that are beginning to affect macroeconomic data. Bitcoin traders are concerned that fears about economic recession could limit price performance despite growing interest from institutional investors. This concern reduces the chances of BTC reaching over $110,000 in 2025.
Bitcoin's two-month future annual premiums have been between 6% and 7% in the past week, remaining within the neutral range of 5% to 10%. Compared to January, traders' sentiment faded when Bitcoin traded nearly $95,000 and futures premiums exceeded 10%. This data suggests optimism, or at least less conviction, in price increases further towards more than $100,000.
Gold's performance outweighs Bitcoin's modest profits
Some market participants point to 20% of gold meetings from $2,680 to $3,220 as a source of concern. Bitcoin has recently surpassed silver's $1.8 trillion market capitalization, becoming the seventh largest globally tradeable asset, but the gold surge against a massive $21.7 trillion valuation oversized this achievement. Investors are worried that Bitcoin's strong correlation with the stock market has reduced the appeal of its “digital gold” narrative.
It is also possible that over the past two weeks, a net US inflow of $3.6 billion has spotted ETFs. In this scenario, the flow either reflects the bitcoin holder that moves to the listed products or uses derivatives for hedging. If so, the direct impact on prices is limited. This coincides with a modest 5% increase in Bitcoin over this period.
To determine whether professional traders are happy with about $97,500 with Bitcoin, it is helpful to look into the BTC options market.
The Delta Skew metric for the 25% BTC option is currently approaching its lowest level since February 15th, indicating that whales and market makers are allocating even higher odds from here. This marks a sharp turnaround from three weeks ago, trading at premiums.
Related: Bitcoin is uncertain as the economic downturn is approaching, US-China tariffs kick off
Bitcoin derivatives' resilience further supports an increase in BTC prices
Overall, Bitcoin derivatives show moderate optimism. Traders generally expect further price increases, but the Bulls refrain from using leverage. Some may argue that this creates the ideal condition for a surprise rally, especially since the $74,500 retest on April 9th ​​had no significant impact on the BTC derivatives.
The most important factor affecting Bitcoin's performance remains the commercial relationship between the US and China. As long as the trade war continues, Bitcoin may continue to track the movements of the S&P 500. This environment could prevent Bitcoin from reaching new history highs in the short term, but BTC derivatives are currently leaning slightly towards bulls.
This article is for general informational purposes and is not intended to be considered legal or investment advice, and should not be done. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors alone and do not necessarily reflect or express Cointregraph's views and opinions.
