The $16.5 billion Bitcoin options expires on Friday – Will BTC prices exceed $90,000?

Bitcoin (BTC) investors are preparing to expire their record-breaking $16.5 billion monthly option on March 28th. However, with the exception of investors below BTC's $90,000, the actual market impact is expected to be more limited as it violated many bullish positions.

This shift gives Bitcoin Bear an important opportunity to escape a potential $3 billion loss. This could have a major impact on market dynamics in the coming weeks.

Currently, the total open interest for call (purchase) options is $10.5 billion, while the $6 billion option is behind. However, the $7.6 billion for these calls is set at over $92,000. This means that Bitcoin requires a profit of 6.4% from its current price and will be viable by the expiration date of March 28th. As a result, the benefits of bullish bets have been greatly reduced.

If QE restarts, Bitcoin Bulls pray for “decoupling”

Some analysts attributing Bitcoin's weak performance to the ongoing global tariff war and US government spending cuts, increasing the risk of an economic recession. Traders are worried about slowing growth, especially in the artificial intelligence sector. This is down 7% since pushing the S&P 500 to a record high on February 19th.

Meanwhile, the Bitcoin Bulls expect to be separated from the stock market despite a 40-day correlation from early March exceeding 70%. Their optimism stems from the growing financial foundations of central banks and the increased adoption of Bitcoin by companies such as GameStop (GME), Rumble (RUM), Metaplanet (TYO:3350), and Semler Scientific (SMLR).

As options close to expiration dates, Bull and Bears each have strong incentives that affect the spot price of Bitcoin. But bullish investors are aiming for a level above $92,000, but their optimism alone is not enough to guarantee that BTC will surpass this mark. Deribit leads the options market with a 74% share, followed by Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) 8.5% and Binance 8%.

Given the current market dynamics, Bitcoin Bulls retains a strategic advantage towards monthly options expiration dates. For example, if Bitcoin remains at $86,500 by 8am on March 28th, a put (selling) option worth $2 billion will be played. This situation will drive the Bears to under $84,000 in Bitcoin, increasing the value of their active put options to $2.6 billion.

Related: Did the Bitcoin purchases for GameStop reach 200k BTC price?

If BTC prices pass $90,000, the Bitcoin Bulls will have the advantage

Below are five possible scenarios based on current price trends: These results estimate the theoretical benefits based on open profit imbalances, but exclude complex strategies such as selling put options to gain an upward price exposure.

Between $81,000 and $85,000: $2.7 billion calls (purchases) vs. $2.6 billion puts (selling). Net results support Call Instruments for $100 million.

Between $85,000 and $88,000: $3.3 billion in calls vs. $2 billion in investments support $1.3 billion in calls.

Between $88,000 and $90,000: $3.4 billion in calls vs. $1.8 billion put. I support a $1.6 billion call.

Between $90,000 and $92,000: $4.4 billion in calls vs. $1.4 billion puts, with $3 billion in calls.

To minimize losses, Bear must push Bitcoin below $84,000 (a 3% drop) before it expires on March 28th. This move increases the value of put (selling) options and strengthens their position.

Conversely, the Bulls can maximize their profits by exceeding $90,000 in BTC. This will create enough momentum to establish the bullish trend for April, especially when spot Bitcoin Exchange Sales Funds (ETFs) flow into their resumes at a strong pace.

This article is for general informational purposes and is not intended to be considered legal or investment advice, and should not be done. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors alone and do not necessarily reflect or express Cointregraph's views and opinions.