The town of Semestene in Sardinia, Italy, dates back to the Middle Ages and has a very long history that could end within the next decade. The population has been decreasing rapidly in recent years, and 54 of the 126 residents are over 65 years old. There are only four children under the age of 10 left in this town. The last report was in 2023, eight years earlier.
Welcome to Ghost Town Italy.
Sound like an exaggeration? Consider that there are approximately 3,800 ghost towns in the United States, and approximately 400 in New Mexico alone. Italy is about the same size as its provinces.
And there are at least 6,000 ghost towns.
“At least” that's because that estimate was made in 2015 and said an additional 15,000 areas were “on the brink.”
In fact, one might wonder if the towns of European countries are the emptiest since the Black Death of the Middle Ages wiped out a quarter to a half of the continent's population. do not have. The current problem is also another epidemic.
The plague of low birthrate.
Why worry about this? That means we don't have to worry about losing our favorite buonissima (!) Italian dishes now that pasta, pizza, etc. have spread all over the world. Furthermore, there are over 8 billion people on the planet. So, shouldn't we be rooting for this bust of Bambini? Probably not.
Italy is not the only country that is affecting demographic trends.
First, it is ironic that the birthplace of Western civilization is in decline due to a lack of births. But that's the reality. Italy is just a representative of all Western European countries. And one of the leaders in warning about this is billionaire visionary Elon Musk. Consider a comment he made a while ago, as well as a comment from a popular X user (tweet with video below).
That user, a German entrepreneur named Ole Lehmann, posted some other surprising information (below). First, he points out that by 2100, Europe will have lost (more than) 117 million people.
In fact, notice how much births in Europe have fallen in just one year (2022-23) (below). The only European country on the list to record an increase is Norway.
Of course, this would be less significant if the decline occurred in a context where birth rates remained strong. But in reality, birth rates in much of the world, especially in the West, have remained extremely low for a long time. (Statistics in map format follow. Note: 2.1 children per woman is a replacement level.)
Below is a list of countries and their birth rates. As you can see, countries of European/European origin generally have the lowest interest rates.
“Hmm!” Going west?
This may not be so important to people who are primarily Western haters, or who believe that Western ideals are somehow perpetuated by non-Western peoples. But those who know what a world without the West would actually mean for humanity would be wary. (Recommended reading: My 2023 essay “A World Without the West.”) Also, understand that, as commentator Mark Stein said, “The future belongs to those who show up to seek it.” It may also be troublesome for those who are.
Westerners are also less visible than most other ethnic groups. What exactly this means was explained by Marko Dzukic, senior analyst at Bismarck Analysis. “A fertility rate below 1.6 means that after three generations, say 100 years, there will be 50% fewer new people. Below 1.2 means an 80% decline,” Newsweek wrote in October. He was reported to have said that. “The US is 1.64. China, Japan, Poland, and Spain are all below 1.2. South Korea is down 0.7 to 96%. Mass extinction numbers.”
Oh, Italy is also 1.2.
What happens in the West doesn't stay in the West
However, declining birth rates are a global phenomenon. HealthData.org wrote in March, citing The Lancet:
By 2050, more than three-quarters of countries (155 out of 204) will no longer have birth rates high enough to maintain their population size over the long term. This will increase to 97% of countries (198 out of 204) by 2100.
While zero population growth types and misanthropes will praise this, it also comes with some negative consequences. Earth.com explained last Wednesday:
If fewer babies are born, the labor force will shrink within a few decades.
Economic systems depend on a constant flow of workers, consumers, and taxpayers. If countries produce fewer people, it may be harder to maintain productivity and get growth back on track.
Economists worry that as the population skews older, the tax base will shrink, making it harder to pay for the services that keep society running smoothly.
As an example, let's consider good old (and old) Italy again. Maria Rita Testa, a demography professor at Rome's Luis University, told CNN last year:
“This would be a major challenge and burden to our nation's pension system, which is a pay-as-you-go system where current workers pay for retirees' pension benefits.”
In other words, highly fertile civilizations are like pyramids. There are many young people at the base, but a much smaller group of older people near the tip. But when the baby bust demographic collapses, this pyramid flips. A relatively small group of young people at the “tip” at ground level supports a larger group of older people at the top.
Remedy?
One factor that could significantly change this equation is the increasing prevalence of artificial intelligence and robotics. As this technology replaces workers, it may eventually support the elderly (and others). However, this is, of course, uncharted territory economically and socially.
Moreover, we probably shouldn't bet that future AI automata will save Western culture. With this in mind, it would be wise to consider the findings and prescriptions of perhaps the best documentary on the subject of baby busts, Demographic Winter 2008 (below).
But what if we fail to revive the spirit of “Be fruitful and multiply”? Now, know that there is at least one bright side to population collapse. Remember Sardinia, the Italian island where the number of children is decreasing? Due to a lack of residents, the local government will sell you a vacation home for just over $1.
So, go on a journey and enjoy “Whet Your Appetite!” Amiko, it's okay to eat by yourself.
