Nearly two-thirds of Democrats say President Joe Biden should withdraw from the 2024 presidential race and allow another candidate to run, according to a new poll from the AP-NORC Center for Public Policy Research. The sentiment comes after prominent Democratic donors and politicians called on Biden to drop out.
Here's how AP-NORC summarized the results of the poll, conducted immediately after the debate between Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump:
As President Biden continues to face the fallout from his debate performance, seven in 10 people, including 65% of Democrats, think he should withdraw from the debates and the party should choose another candidate. Concerns are growing about whether President Biden is mentally capable of being an effective president, and few adults think he can win the presidential election in November.
In the survey conducted July 11-15, just 30% of Democrats said they were extremely or very confident in Biden's mental ability to serve as president, down from 40% in February. The results underscore the major challenge the 81-year-old president faces as he tries to regain support within his party and reassure Democrats that he is the best candidate to beat Trump.
Most Democrats want Biden gone.
Polls show a worrying trend among rank-and-file Democrats looking for an alternative to Biden, in contrast to the Republican base, which is overwhelmingly backing Donald Trump.
Overall, 57% of adults say Trump should drop out of the race and allow his party to nominate a replacement, but he has maintained his party's support, with 73% of Republicans saying he should remain in the race.
Biden is facing further resistance from within his own party, with only 35% of Democrats saying he should continue in the race.
The poll also found that younger Democrats are especially likely to want Biden to withdraw: Three-quarters of those under 45 expressed that desire, compared with about six-in-ten older Democrats.
Support for Biden is relatively strong among black Democrats, with about half saying he should continue to campaign. In contrast, only about 30% of white and Hispanic Democrats share this view. Overall, 7 in 10 Americans think Biden should step aside. Democrats are slightly less likely to hold this view than Republicans and independents.
In the broader context, the polls were conducted primarily before the assassination attempt on Trump at a campaign rally in Pennsylvania, so they cannot reveal any shifts in public opinion since. The exact magnitude of the impact of that incident on public opinion has yet to be measured. But pollsters did not report any immediate improvement in Biden's prospects in his first interviews after the shooting.
This week, leading Democrats have begun to more openly express concern about Biden's impact on the party's political prospects, including Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.), as well as Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) and Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), who have reportedly “increased pressure for Biden to resign.”
Kamala Harris
As discussions of Biden's possible withdrawal continue, Vice President Kamala Harris has also come under increasing scrutiny. Polls show Harris has an overall favorable rating of 43%, five points higher than Biden's. The percentage of Americans who have an unfavorable view of Harris is slightly lower than those of Trump and Biden. Among Democrats, Harris' approval rating now sits at 74%.
An Economist/YouGov poll released Thursday found that 79% of Democrats would support Harris as the party's nominee if Biden were to step down.
At the same time, Democrats say her chances of beating Trump are far from certain.
But Democrats don't agree that Harris is a better candidate than Biden: 28% say she has a better chance of beating Trump than Biden, 24% say she has a worse chance than Biden, and 32% say she's about evenly matched against Trump.
Support for Harris is significantly higher among Democrats who believe a change in candidate is needed.
Battleground States
Another recent poll shows Trump now leading Biden nationally and in seven key battleground states, further reflecting Biden's declining support among voters.
According to an Emerson College poll sponsored by Next Generation Democrats and released on Thursday, 46% of registered voters support Trump, 42% support Biden, and 12% are undecided. Notably, the pollster noted that Biden's support has fallen by two points since the beginning of the month, while Trump's support remains unchanged.
“The survey found that 100% of Americans are female, and 100% are male,” said Spencer Kimball, director of the Emerson College Poll.
Recent polls have found that Biden's approval rating has dropped more than Trump's has risen since the assassination attempt, raising the question of whether Biden's drop is still being affected by the debates or whether Trump has hit a ceiling on his approval rating.
Hopes for Biden
Despite the challenges, Biden remains committed to the campaign and hopeful about his chances of reelection.
In an interview with BET News on Tuesday, he said many voters have not yet paid attention to the election and the campaign is just getting started. “The thing is, we're just getting started,” he said, arguing that health issues alone would be a reason to reconsider running.
The next day, Biden tested positive for COVID-19, forcing him to cancel a speech at a major Hispanic event in Las Vegas and rush to his home in Rehoboth Beach, Delaware.
As the election season progresses, Biden's ability to regain control of the campaign and convince voters of his viability will be crucial. The coming months will determine whether he can overcome growing doubts within his party and secure a strong path to the 2024 presidential election.
