The Misery Index indicates that Vice President Kamala Harris is more likely to win the presidential election in November.
Also known as the “Economic Distress Index,” the index was developed during the administration of President Lyndon B. Johnson, who came to power following the assassination of then-President John F. Kennedy in November 1963. Johnson wanted a simple number to show the state of the economy, and the Misery Index was devised by his chief economic advisor, Arthur Okun.
Since its introduction, the index has demonstrated a remarkable ability to predict presidential election winners: the more dissatisfied the electorate, the more likely the incumbent president will be ousted in the next election.
This is simply the sum of two numbers: the annual inflation rate and the current unemployment rate. This number, released monthly by the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), currently stands at 6.731. This doesn't mean anything to the casual observer, but to Strategas Research Partners, it means that unless there is a significant change in these numbers over the next 30 days, Harris (who in this case is considered the incumbent) will win the presidential election against Donald Trump.
Convincing correlations
Strategas has studied the correlation between the Misery Index and presidential elections and believes that a reading above 7.353 would mean the incumbent president would be ousted, while a reading below that would mean the incumbent would remain in office.
But Daniel Clifton, head of research at Strategas, had his bets covered. On Tuesday morning, he called the race “extremely close,” adding that “given how tight the race is, the stakes are the highest they've ever been going into the debate.”
On the surface, the Misery Index seems undeniable: When President Gerald Ford ended his term in 1976 and Jimmy Carter took office, the index was 12.7. When Carter was replaced by Ronald Reagan in 1980, the index rose even further.
Could the Misery Index be wrong this time?
The New American has been tracking the U.S. economy's rapid descent into recession for months, pointing to economic indicators and even “indicators of indicators” that suggest a recession is on the horizon. This suggests a high misery index. So, here are some thoughts:
First, the two components of the Misery Index, the unemployment rate and the annual inflation rate, are “lagging” indicators rather than “current” or “leading” indicators.
Second, the index tracks presidential elections in which an incumbent is up for reelection, but Harris is not actually the incumbent (she did not receive a single vote in any primary election and no voters have a vote on how she was selected for president). In fact, her unpopularity was so great that she was forced to abandon her 2020 presidential bid even before the first primary.
But the most compelling argument against using the “misery” or “economic discomfort” index to predict the November outcome is this: The index is published by the government's BLS and uses government figures reported by the BLS.
John Williams has made a living for years by pointing out that these numbers are false. His website, Shadowstats.com, now reports that the actual inflation rate is not 3 percent, but well over 10 percent. He has also consistently argued that the unemployment rate reported by the BLS is too low, and that it is at least 10 percent higher than the BLS figure.
A disaster for Harris?
If Williams is right, the Misery Index would be dire for Harris, coming in at a dismal 27.
In other words, using real-world numbers, Okun's Misery Index shows that Trump will beat Harris by a landslide in November.
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