As the race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris heats up in the final weeks of the 2024 presidential campaign, a new national survey reveals surprising trends that could decide the outcome of the election. He is expected to abstain from voting. According to a study conducted by the Center for Cultural Studies at Arizona Christian University, led by Dr. George Barna, voter enthusiasm has decreased significantly compared to previous elections. This lack of participation could play an important role in determining the next president.
Key findings: 104 million people of faith not expected to vote
The report released on Monday highlights that approximately 104 million believers, including 32 million self-proclaimed Christians who regularly attend church, are unlikely to vote in the next election.
According to the paper,
One of the study's most important findings is that “people of faith” have lower voting intentions.
Only half (51%) of people classified as people of faith said they were likely to vote. This survey statistic is projected based on national population estimates based on a U.S. census-derived population of 268 million voting age and an estimated 212 million adults who qualify as “religious.” 49% of people are less likely to qualify as a person of faith. Approximately 104 million voters in the “people of faith” category will vote in November.
Researchers have defined individuals who describe themselves as having a religious faith or are associated with a recognized religious tradition such as Christianity, Judaism, Mormonism, or Islam as “people of faith.” ” is called. Based on these criteria, 79 percent of Americans qualify as people of faith. Of these, 66 percent are Christians over the age of 18. This means that more than four in five (83%) adults who identify as religious are Christian.
Researchers claim these findings are important. Christian churchgoers have historically supported conservative candidates. This trend could pose a potential setback to Donald Trump's re-election campaign.
Reasons for not voting
The study further investigated why so many voters, particularly within faith communities, are planning to abstain. The most common reasons include a general lack of interest in politics (68%), “disliking” all major candidates (57%), and a belief that their vote will not bring about change ( 52%). Half of respondents also cited the “controversial” nature of the election as a reason to avoid voting.
In addition, nearly half (48%) of non-voters said they did not vote because they feared the results would be rigged or because they did not feel they had enough information to be informed about the candidates. was discouraged from participating. decision.
Despite efforts to engage non-voters, the study found that none of the proposed scenarios, such as having a close friend encourage them to vote or receiving bipartisan briefing on a candidate's position, significantly reduced the likelihood of participation. It turned out that it was not something that would enhance the situation.
Decreasing church involvement
The study also points to a decline in the church's involvement in political affairs. Many Christian churches choose not to encourage their members to vote or address major social issues related to elections. Research shows that this change has left many regular churchgoers uninformed or disincentivized to participate in elections.
Of those surveyed, 56% of churches encouraged voting. Fewer churches are taking more proactive steps, such as registering new voters (26%) or providing voter guides (24%). Many people who regularly attend church have expressed dissatisfaction with the church's lack of election-related teaching. This concern is particularly strong among those in Protestant and Catholic churches.
In particular, the role of the church in voter engagement varies widely from congregation to congregation. The study found that black churches were more active in all seven types of election-related activities surveyed. Specifically, traditionally black churches are more than twice as likely to register voters than other Christian churches (55 percent versus 25 percent). They are also more likely to provide a voter guide (53 percent vs. 23 percent).
Key issues shaping voting decisions among church-going Christians
For Christians who attend church regularly, the choice of candidates in the 2024 election will be determined by several important issues. Inflation and cost of living topped the list at 67%. This was followed by the economy at 64%, immigration and border control at 60%, and crime and law enforcement at 59%. Voters are also concerned about poverty, government mismanagement, and abortion. Despite these concerns, the survey found that pastors rarely address many topics important to their congregations. Only 1% of church-going Christians said these issues would not affect their vote.
Potential impact on elections
The expected low turnout among people of faith could directly impact the 2024 election. Historical data shows that in close races, small changes in turnout can have a big impact on the outcome.
Dr. Barna said:
The voting results that tell the truth are the margins of victory in battleground states. The margin of victory in 2020 was a total of about 587,000 votes in nine battleground states. Cumulatively, they represented about one-fifth of the votes in the Electoral College, or 104 of the 538 electors. Only 270 electoral votes are needed to win the race, but an average difference of just 60,000 votes in each of these states determined the winner with nearly 40% of the total electoral votes needed to win.
He continued:
In that context, the 32 million Christians sitting in the pews each week refusing to vote is a game-changer. This is a low-hanging fruit for pastors who seek to motivate their congregations to fulfill their civic duties and honor God through their influence on what is important in our culture.
In the final weeks leading up to the election, researchers expressed hope that more Christians would be energized for the election.
methodology
The Cultural Research Center conducted two national surveys in August and September 2024. The first study used a mixed-methods approach combining telephone and online interviews with 2,000 self-proclaimed Christians who attend church regularly. The second survey surveyed 1,000 voting-age adults through an online panel. Both samples are statistically weighted for demographic representation, with errors ranging from ±3 to ±4 percentage points. Interviews lasted an average of 15 to 17 minutes.
