Bitcoin (BTC) could be on the verge of a breakout as rising institutional investment, increased miner holdings, and increased exchange-traded product (ETP) flows point to increased demand, according to VanEck's latest Bitcoin ChainCheck report. It is said that there is.
The report also highlighted that the increasing influence of institutional adoption in the Bitcoin market has strengthened the correlation between ETP flows and BTC prices.
ETP correlation
Weekly net inflows into U.S. Bitcoin ETPs reached $19.4 billion by mid-October, according to data from the report, indicating that inflows from institutional investors are driving much of the price discovery process. It was done.
The correlation between weekly ETP inflows and Bitcoin returns was particularly strong, with an R² value of 0.3422. This shows that institutional money is increasingly leading Bitcoin's price movements, rather than following them. R² value is a commonly used metric to determine how a model fits data and predict future results.
Mathew Sigel, Head of Digital Asset Research at VanEck, said:
“Institutional investor participation through these investment vehicles has a clear impact on prices and strengthens Bitcoin’s position as a key asset in the global financial system.”
The report also reveals that daily ETP flows show some predictive power for Bitcoin price movements in after-hours trading, further highlighting the impact of institutional inflows.
VanEck's analysis shows that the relationship between ETP flows and Bitcoin returns strengthened during a specific period from July to September, indicating that momentum in the US market is spilling over into the global crypto market 24/7. It became clear that
macro hedge
VanEck said Bitcoin is increasingly being recognized as a “macro hedge” against economic instability and market fluctuations. The report said Bitcoin has become increasingly attractive to institutional investors looking to protect their portfolios from inflation, currency devaluations and geopolitical uncertainty.
Many see Bitcoin as a hedge against the fluctuations of traditional financial markets, similar to gold, with additional benefits such as liquidity and digital accessibility. Recent trends in miner activity and corporate financial strategies are reinforcing this narrative.
The report noted that US-listed miners added 2% to Bitcoin Treasuries in September, following an 11% surge in August. This increase in BTC accumulation, coupled with an 8% increase in corporate treasury investments, indicates solid institutional investors' confidence in Bitcoin's long-term prospects.
According to Siegel,
“Large companies, including listed miners and Japanese real estate operator Metaplanet, continue to accumulate Bitcoin, reflecting Bitcoin’s growing status as a store of value.”
Matthew Sigel, Head of Digital Asset Research at VanEck, said:
Market sentiment and power
Market sentiment towards Bitcoin has improved significantly, with almost 90% of Bitcoin addresses making profits. The unrealized profit/loss ratio has increased by 6% over the past month, indicating a more optimistic outlook than in the summer.
Furthermore, Bitcoin’s dominance in the cryptocurrency market increased to 57%, reaching a level not seen since April 2021. This market share increase further strengthens Bitcoin's position as a major store of value within the cryptocurrency ecosystem.
The report also highlighted Bitcoin's resilience in various regulatory environments, especially as US regulators, including the SEC, increase scrutiny of non-Bitcoin digital assets. In contrast, Bitcoin has remained largely insulated from this pressure, reinforcing its role as a safer asset.
In terms of regional trends, US and European traders have been the main drivers of Bitcoin's price performance, with Bitcoin increasing by 2% during US trading hours and 4% during European trading hours over the past month. % rose.
Meanwhile, the long-standing pattern of Asia selling Bitcoin to buyers in the US and Europe remains in place and has been a consistent factor in price fluctuations, with demand from Western markets often compounding selling pressure from Asian markets. They cancel each other out.
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