Donald Trump has once again taken the lead over Kamala Harris on cryptocurrency prediction market Polymarkets, with odds currently standing at 52% for Trump and 47% for Harris. Harris lost a 10-point lead over Trump ahead of this week's Democratic National Convention.
The change comes amid a significant increase in the likelihood that Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will endorse Trump. Kennedy's running mate, Nicole Shanahan, rose from 14% to 46% on the odds of him endorsing Trump this month after she spoke on the Impact Theory podcast, revealing that she was considering dropping out to endorse Trump, significantly impacting prediction market perceptions.
The situation has been further complicated by reports last week that RFK Jr. was considering a potential role within Harris' administration.
Despite this development on Polymarket, other prediction platforms and polls still show Harris in the lead. Oddschecker says Harris maintains her lead on PredictIt, with Trump's odds narrowing globally, but Harris still has a slight lead. Polymarket's divergence from other markets highlights the unique dynamics within crypto-native platforms, where Trump's pro-crypto stance may resonate with investors.
Trump's odds on the Poly market have fluctuated from 72% to 47% and are currently at 52%. This increase coincides with Harris' odds dropping from 54% to 49%. The lack of mention of Bitcoin or cryptocurrencies in the Democratic Party platform announced at the Democratic National Convention may be a factor in the Poly market fluctuations.
Overall, Trump's lead in the polymarket represents a significant development, but the broader prediction market landscape still leans slightly in Harris' favor, highlighting the multifaceted nature of political forecasting in the context of the 2024 US presidential election.
Mentioned in this article
News Desk
CryptoSlate is a comprehensive, contextualized source of cryptocurrency news, insights, and data, with a focus on Bitcoin, Macro, DeFi, and AI.
