What makes the Conference Board report, released this morning, so disturbing, especially for Kamala Harris supporters, is that it is based on the opinions of more than 36 million dissatisfied American consumers.
The current situation index fell a whopping 7% last month, from 105.6 in August to 98.7 in September, the lowest level in three years. The expectations index also plummeted, falling from 134.6 in August to 124.3 in September. The outlook for employment and the overall economy is similarly bleak: short-term expectations have fallen nearly five points since August to 81.7 (just barely above the recession-indicating level of 80).
The board had no cause for celebration about the bad news. Dana Peterson, the board's chief economist, said:
Consumer confidence fell in September to near the lower end of the narrow range it has been in for the past two years. The September drop was the biggest since August 2021, with all five components of the index worsening.
Consumers' assessment of the current business environment turned negative and their views of current labor market conditions further weakened. Consumers also became more pessimistic about future labor market conditions and less optimistic about the future business environment and future incomes.
Confidence fell across most income groups in September, with confidence falling the most among consumers earning less than $50,000.
The deterioration across the index's major components likely reflects consumer concerns about the labor market and a reaction to reduced work hours, slowing salary growth and declining job openings.
detail
• Consumers' opinion of the current business environment turned negative in September.
• Assessment of the health of the labour market worsened in September.
• Expectations for the next six months also fell in September.
• The labour market outlook weakened in September.
• Income expectations fell in September.
• Assessment of personal and family economic conditions worsened further in September.
• Future expectations about personal and financial circumstances “remain well below levels seen in May 2020,” as the U.S. was emerging from coronavirus lockdowns, according to the Conference Board.
Too little, too late
Last week, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by just half a percentage point, but as always, it was too late and likely not enough to reverse the economy's trajectory before the November election. Earlier this month, David Rosenberg, author of Indicators of Indicators, reported that “(half) of the recession indicators we track have been triggered. Going back to 1999, we've never had an unsuccessful recession.”
The manufacturing sector has contracted due to a decline in new orders, with new orders at their lowest in two years. Factory utilization is at its lowest since the government shutdown in May 2020. The manufacturing index has declined for five consecutive months.
Investor's Business Daily economic optimism index has been in negative territory for 37 months. Four in five consumers repeatedly voiced growing concerns about inflation and a slowing economy. Bankruptcy filings increased 40 percent last year. Restaurant chains have filed for bankruptcy.
Even in “rich” states like Florida and Texas, consumers are finding it increasingly difficult to pay their bills on time, and more than 136,000 technology sector employees have been “retrenched” and lost their jobs so far this year.
This bodes ill for the Harris-Waltz campaign, which has oddly adopted a “joy” strategy in its bid to win the White House, after the Census Bureau reported that most American families gave up any gains they enjoyed under the Trump administration.
Moreover, according to RealClearPolling, more than six in 10 Americans believe the country is heading in the wrong direction. All the Conference Board has done in its latest report is confirm this fact.
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