Bloomberg ETF analysts Eric Bulknath and James Seyfert released the latest approval odds for the Spot Altcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFS) in 2025, with XRP receiving the lowest odds.
According to the latest estimates, Litecoin (LTC) leads with a 90% approval probability, followed by Dogecoin (Doge) at 75% 70% Solana (SOL) – XRP Trail Others have a 65% chance of approval.
Baltunas emphasized:
“It should be noted that all of this stuff (except for the always-high Litecoin) was under 5% before the election. So these are relatively good odds, and perhaps the more they grow, the more typical they are You can see that it goes through a process.
US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Recently recognized The 19B-4 format of the Litecoin ETF enhances approval odds. Recently Balchuna It is listed That LTC product checks “all boxes” and sees no reason for the SEC to withdraw the filing.
Furthermore, analysts believe Litecoin is likely to be considered a product, as it is a fork for Bitcoin that has the same proof of work consensus algorithm and is not pre-sold.
The same applies to Doge, where analysts believe it, for the same reasons as LTC and Bitcoin (BTC). Meanwhile, the SEC has labelled SOL and XRP as securities in various litigation cases.
This is probably why Doge ETF has 5% higher approval odds than Solana, despite not accepting the Doge Funds' 19B-4 form at the time of reporting.
Significant changes
However, analysts pointed out that Commissioner Hester Perth's Cryptographic Task Force could consider classifying the SEC's XRP and SOL securities by the end of 2025.
Seyffart said that both XRP and Doge ETF will likely be granted this week on notes on SEC applications.
Meanwhile, Balchunas' current analysis only includes 1933 ACT applications similar to BlackRock's IBIT Bitcoin ETF, but alternative structures such as 40 ACT futures-based ETFs and Cayman-Subsidiary funds may emerge. He said it was sexual.
With increasing pressure on the SEC, providing clarity of regulations and increasing institutional demand for crypto investment products, 2025 could be a key turning point for Spot Altcoin ETFs.
Seyffart and Balchunas already have It was predicted This year, under the current administration, the “wave of crypto ETFs” was achieved due to the US more favorable regulatory landscape.
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