Bitcoin (BTC) could reach a peak of $290,000 in early 2026 if it repeats the 2017 bull market, according to the latest edition of Bitfinex Alpha. report.
This forecast is based on historical price patterns, institutional adoption, and key technical indicators during bullish cycles.
Following the bear market low in November 2022, Bitcoin rebounded strongly in 2023 with an increase of 155.5%. That momentum continued into 2024, with BTC trading between $55,000 and $70,000 for most of the year, marking a 143% year-to-date gain.
The current bull cycle began in mid-to-late 2023, fueled by expectations for a 2024 Bitcoin halving event ahead of a historically bullish year.
The report further attributes the cycle's strength to buying pressure from institutional investors and the launch of a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the US, which have led to consistent demand and a market correction. The scale and period of the project are limited.
cycle pattern
In the 2017 cycle, Bitcoin's biggest correction was 33.2%, while the 2020 cycle saw a drawdown of 27.1%. In the current cycle, increased institutional investor interest has led to more subdued corrections and more stable markets.
An important tool for predicting Bitcoin price peaks, the Pi Cycle Top indicator has historically marked cycle highs with amazing accuracy. This indicator tracks the relationship between the 111-day moving average (111DMA) and the 350-day moving average multiple (350DMAx2).
In previous cycles, Bitcoin typically reached significant price peaks when 111DMA exceeded 350DMAx2. The report states that this crossover could occur as early as June 29, 2025 if the 2021 cycle pattern repeats, or at the latest as January 28, 2026 in a scenario that mirrors the 2017 extended cycle. He emphasized that it is possible.
price prediction
Based on past performance, Bitcoin peaked well above its moving average during the bull market. In 2017, it traded at three times its peak moving average. However, returns are decreasing as BTC matures, suggesting a more conservative price forecast.
According to Bitfinex, if Bitcoin follows its trajectory in 2021, it could move 40% above the moving average and the price could reach around $339,000.
However, given the slowing returns, Bitcoin could peak in the $160,000 to $200,000 range by mid-2025, 15% to 20% above its moving average. Meanwhile, Bitcoin could peak at around $290,000 by early 2026, although a repeat of the 2017 cycle is unlikely.
Historical indicators suggest that the most likely scenario is a peak between $160,000 and $290,000, but the path to this high depends on market maturity, ETF adoption, and more. The report said it would depend on broader macroeconomic conditions.
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