Bitcoin won 12% in two weeks until April 22nd, showing resilience amidst US-China tariffs. Observers should be aware of Bitcoin decoupling from inventory that behaves like gold (safe shelter). The US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Plan could strengthen asset status (Nansen CEO).
Bitcoin has demonstrated a notable strength in recent weeks, and appears to surround the escalating trade tensions between the US and China, which have broader financial markets.
This resilience is characterized by a significant price rise, facilitating the observation that cryptocurrencies behave more and more like traditional, safe assets similar to gold, rather than reflecting the volatility that is common in technology-rich indexes like the Nasdaq.
Forks amid trade turmoil
In the two weeks ending April 22nd, Bitcoin registered a 12% price rise steadily.
This upward movement came as the trade dispute intensified, with the US imposing up to 125% in China and urgent mutual action from Beijing.
Unlike many other assets that are sensitive to global trade disruptions, Bitcoin appears to be relatively insulated, reinforcing discussions of its potential role as a valuable repository in the event of geopolitical uncertainty.
Alex Svanevik, CEO of Crypto Intelligence Firm Nansen, highlighted this trend, focusing on Bitcoin's “decoupling” from the traditional stock market.
“Unlike major indexes like the Altcoins and the S&P 500, Bitcoin remains relatively stable despite global trade tensions,” Svanevik said according to the analysis.
However, he warned that while resilient to certain trade issues, Bitcoin is susceptible to wider macroeconomic headwinds, particularly the heightened fear of a potential economic recession.
Enhanced Safe Haven's Story: US Reservation Plan
Adding another layer to Bitcoin's evolving status is a potential concept of the US strategic Bitcoin reserve.
The plan outlined in the executive order suggests that the government intends to hold Bitcoin, including assets initially seized in criminal investigations.
More importantly, the order details potential future strategies for winning more Bitcoin. This is a future strategy to win more Bitcoin by reevaluating the Treasury Gold Certificate to generate surplus funds, as it may avoid the need to sell existing gold reserves.
Svanevik believes that “regulation development will play an important role in the growth of Bitcoin as a global asset,” and may strengthen its legitimacy and appeal.
Despite encryption, the shadow of a recession is looming
Bitcoin charts its course, but the macroeconomic outlook remains cloudy. Concerns about the possibility of a US recession have intensified, serving as a key counterweight to bullish sentiment in risky assets.
A recent report from JPMorgan has increased the estimated probability of a US recession in 2025 from 40% to 60%.
The report highlights that existing tariffs continue to pose “a serious threat to global growth,” particularly citing China's 145% tariffs in this context.
Against this backdrop, the Federal Reserve is expected to begin easing its monetary policy, with further interest rate cuts expected between September 2026 and January 2026.
While monetary easing can stimulate the economy, it could also affect demand dynamics for assets that are perceived as more risky, including Bitcoin, depending on how investors measure inflation hedge and growth outlook.
Navigate the uncertain future
Bitcoin's trajectory appears to be increasingly shaped by the interaction of complex factors.
Its resilience during recent trade frictions supports the maturation of its narrative into a valuable repository like gold.
Potential government actions such as ongoing institutional interests and strategic preparation could further strengthen this perception.
However, the wider economic downturn and the looming threat of ongoing regulatory development remain important variables, particularly in the United States.
As global economic unrest continues, Bitcoin's ability to maintain its appeal as a hedge against turbulence will be closely monitored.
