Since early 2023, Bitcoin (BTC) has chased out a classic staircase, a classic staircase, which features a step -by -step rising and following the integration period that sets the next step.
Cryptocurrency's continuous price integration is the third integration of $ 20,000, between $ 90,000 and $ 100,000. The consensus is the same as in the mid -2024 and 2023, which ends with a bullbrakeout.
However, we recommend that the following three developments are not.
Tighten USD fluidity
If there is one asset class that you usually dislike, not just ciphers, it is a Fiat fluidity, especially the US dollar (USD), a world -class reserve currency. The disappointment of the BTC Bulls, as ARTHUR HAYES, the highest investment in MaelStrom, pointed out to X, the dollar fluid was tightened due to some factors.
In particular, according to Data Source Macromicro, the US dollar's balance was held in the US government's current account account (TGA), a U.S. government account (TGA), a U.S. government, a U.S. government account. Increased to 100 million dollars.
After the United States achieved $ 36 trillion debt restrictions last month, the market has a TGA balance as part of an extraordinary measure to maintain government functions and inadvertently strengthen economic and market liquidity. I wanted to shrink. That was what the Ministry of Finance had done in the previous debt limit issues in early 2023, which spurred the increase in risk take in stocks and cryptographic markets.
“We are looking at scenarios that are exhausted or strictly controlled by the main fluid sources. This is more of risk assets, including deceleration of economic activity, increased borrowing costs, and encryption. LIAN, which can lead to a difficult environment, describes X, an ideological leader and an interchangeable blockchain expert.
Trump administration that “evaluates” strategic BTC reserves
Since President Donald Trump took office on January 20, he has been actively pursuing promises of various campaigns related to tariffs, illegal immigrants, and international issues.
However, there is one remarkable exception. It is the establishment of a strategic BTC reserve. This was an important catalyst that exceeded $ 70,000 to $ 100,000 behind BTC.
The Trump administration seems to be more cautious, and chooses to “evaluate” the feasibility of creating such spare. This is a disappointing change for cryptocation investors who predict this quick action against Initiative, as in Trump's quick response to other issues.
“Wait, Trump will not promise to” evaluate it, “he said he would make a $ BTC reserve. Jim Bianco, a macro strategy of LLC, is evaluated/research when Bianco Research, when Washington does not want to do anything.
BTC tells CNBC to CNBC that Trump's Crypto Czar has evaluated the feasibility of bitcoin reserve to CNBC and his new Task Force's top agenda item is the feasibility of bitcoin reservation, and then in transaction overnight. It has decreased to dollars.
2021 Re -appearing topping patterns
Finally, if you are looking at the technical chart to measure the next movement, you may want to raise the 14 -week relative strength index (RSI) on the screen.
This is because the oscillator has recently diverged the top of the 2021 top of the 2021. The disinfection of a bearish RSI is contradictory with higher prices, indicating a slowdown in the bullish momentum.
RSI creates a lower price compared to the high in December and has a severe branching from continuous price rise. This is similar to the 2021 pattern.
If the RSI crosses the decreased trend line, indicates a divergence, and shows a new bullish momentum, the negative setup is invalid.
