Bitcoin could fall to $88,000 before attempting to break above $100,000 again – Glassnode

According to Glassnode, Bitcoin (BTC) could visit the sub-$88,000 zone if further downside is recorded before resuming the rally towards the $100,000 threshold. report.

The report notes that BTC's rapid rise has left minimal trading activity between $76,000 and $88,000, leading to unresolved issues that could attract market attention if the current decline continues. It is creating a price range for development and highlighting a significant 'air gap'.

However, this price action is natural during the price discovery phase, which involves cycles of rebound, correction, and consolidation to establish a stable price range. Observing the supply distribution during the price discovery stage is fundamental to uncovering supply and demand zones that can influence Bitcoin's trajectory.

As Bitcoin progresses through price discovery territory, the report highlighted LTH's role in bringing previously dormant supply back into liquid circulation. Although the $100,000 milestone remains within reach, the market may need a re-accumulation phase to digest the profit-taking pressure and fully maintain the upward momentum.

Parallel with March

The current rally mirrors the pattern seen during the March rally, when a significant re-accumulation of supply at low levels supported Bitcoin's rise to new highs.

The main driver of Bitcoin price fluctuations is the behavior of long-term holders (LTH), who have realized record profits amid increased liquidity. Since September, this cohort has distributed approximately 507,000 BTC, with profit taking rates exceeding those observed during March.

Glassnode's LTH Liveiness metric shows an uptick in spending activity, indicating that most of the coins distributed were acquired relatively recently, rather than having been held for years.

LTH is currently delivering a new record daily profit of $2.02 billion and will need solid demand to absorb the reallocation of supply.

Additionally, the report warns of the need for further consolidation to maintain market equilibrium.

sell side forces

The sell-side risk ratio, which measures realized profits and losses relative to market size, is approaching high territory, indicating intensified profit-taking.

However, the report noted that current ratios remain below previous bull market peaks, suggesting demand remains resilient enough to absorb selling pressure.

The document analyzes the composition of the sold supply and reveals that coins aged between six months and one year currently dominate sell-side pressure, accounting for 35.3% of total realized profits. .

These coins were likely accumulated after the launch of an exchange-traded fund (ETF), suggesting investors are using a “swing trading” strategy to take advantage of recent market momentum. I am.

Moreover, profit taking is uniform across different revenue tiers, with realized profits ranging from $7.2 billion to $13.1 billion for different percentage groups. This consistency highlights a strategic “chip-off-the-table” approach that allows low-cost-based investors to secure profits while maintaining long-term exposure.

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