Is the election over once Democratic strategists throw in the towel? Amecia Cross, a shining star who has worked with Democrats Barack Obama and Rahm Emanuel, told Reuters:
Not the Dow Jones Industrial Average (which is hitting new highs). People wonder if they have the money to do what they could do just a few years ago, and most would say it's not possible.
All politics is personal. Their prism is determined by what they experience on a daily basis.
In its latest survey conducted two weeks ago, Reuters asked the public: “What is the most important issue facing the United States today?” The answer was far away: the economy, unemployment, and employment. These concerns were echoed across the political spectrum, including Republicans, Democrats, and independents.
When asked if they thought things were headed in the right direction in this country, 90% of Republicans said no. 66% of independents said no, and a whopping 38% of Democrats said no.
Other concerns, such as terrorism, health care, energy, the environment, and abortion, faded into insignificance. It's the economy. It's always economics. And the places where people live, eat and work are performing increasingly poorly, potentially costing Kamala Harris the election in two weeks.
Voters in battleground states
In key battleground states, the number of people needing help from local churches and food banks has doubled under the Biden/Harris administration. “Feeding America West Michigan is proud to be a part of this partnership,” said Ken Estelle, president of Feeding America West Michigan.
We have never seen this level of need in the 43 years we have served this community. …We saw this drumbeat increase with more and more people (needing food assistance) every month.
In Waukesha County, Wisconsin, Rochelle Gamauf's Friends with Food Pantry donated approximately 420,000 pounds of food in 2022. That number has now increased to over £1 million. she told NBC News.
I see people who have never visited a food pantry in their life. It's not just the cost of food going up, it's the overall price going up. Electricity bills are going up, rent is going up, and basic needs like insurance are all going up.
impact of inflation
The use of credit cards to cover everyday expenses has exploded, with nearly 4 in 10 Americans having maxed out their credit card limit in the past 2.5 years or nearing it. According to Bankrate, it is approaching . When pursued, they blame inflation and the resulting high prices.
Not surprisingly, credit card debt has reached a new record of $1.14 trillion, as many households have no other options. Bankrate found that more than half (56%) of American households would be unable to cover a sudden, unexpected expense of $1,000 without borrowing money.
Walgreens, founded in 1901 and currently the nation's second-largest pharmacy, announced last week that it would close 1,200 of its 8,500 stores. The company attributed the change to “changing consumer shopping habits,” as its customers shop more price-consciously at competitors like Walmart and Kroger.
The suffering of real estate
American consumers aren't buying homes. Mortgage applications fell by an astonishing 17% last week as rising mortgage rates and high prices kept buyers away. The Wall Street Journal also noted that home sales are “on track for their worst year since 1995.” That was almost 30 years ago. Just three years ago, in 2021, there were more than 6 million home sales. This year, that number has been cut in half.
Commercial real estate has also been affected by the economic downturn. One of the most notable examples was the $8.5 million sale of a nearly 1 million square foot Manhattan office building located just one block west of Rockefeller Center in downtown New York City. The 920,000 square foot building was purchased by UBS in 2006 for $332.5 million. At the time of the sale, occupancy was just 35%, another reflection of the economic downturn even in the bustling Big Apple.
Good sign for President Trump
All of this is showing up in the polls, with Trump supporting Harris. But the best predictions come from election prediction betting sites rather than traditional polls. According to ElectionBettingOdds.com, Trump leads Harris by 62%, while Harris has a 38% chance of winning the presidency. We also provide electoral predictions: Trump: 312; Trump: 312; Harris: 226.
According to John Stossel, co-founder of ElectionBettingOdds, these betting sites are a much more reliable predictive tool than polls about who will win in November.
But the best predictor of the outcome in two weeks is the Biden/Harris economy.
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