According to Crypto executives, the Bitcoin Bulls are still thinking about cycle peak as retail investors may still be using outdated playbooks as retail investors have not yet loaded.
“The idea that the cycle is not over just because Onchain Retail Activition is absent is because there is no need for rethinking,” said Ki Young Ju, founder and CEO of CryptoQuant, in the X-Post March 19th.
Ju said that if you track retail movements using only Onchain metrics, you won't see the big picture.
“Retailing could be coming in through ETFs, the paper Bitcoin layer.
“This will give you a lower realisation cap than if the funds flow directly through the sediment wallet,” he added, noting that 80% of the flow of spot bitcoin (BTC) exchange sales funds (ETFs) come from retail investors.
Since the launch of the Spot Bitcoin ETF in January 2024, the total inflow has been around $35.8 billion. Source: Farside
At the time, analysts said most ETF purchases were likely to be driven by retail investors to move their holdings from wallets and exchanges to funds more regulated.
Ju was responding to a counterargument on the previous prediction of X that “the Bitcoin Bull Cycle is over” on March 17th.
“I have been seeking bull markets over the past two years, even if the indicators are boundaries. I'm sorry I changed my view, but I can clearly see that I'm entering the bear market now,” he said.
Ju explained that certain indicators indicate a lack of new liquidity. This is probably driven by macro factors.
He also made it clear when he said the bull cycle was over. He meant that Bitcoin could take “6-12 months” to beat the all-time high.
Related: Bitcoin is just looking at “normal fixes” and cycle peak has not yet arrived: Analyst
Traders often see retail investors' activities to find signs of fatigue, as a signal to start selling when the market appears to be overheating.
There are several emotional indicators that will help market participants understand the level of retail interest in the market. One of these is the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which measures sentiment across the crypto market. I read the “Fear” score, which is 18 points lower than yesterday's “Neutral” score of 49.
Other common signals used to track the level of retail level in the crypto market include Google search trends for “crypto” and related keywords in major app stores around the world, as well as the popularity of cryptographic applications.
Google search scores for “crypto” around the world came to a score of 100 for the week of January 19-25, when Bitcoin reached its all-time high of $109,000 and President Donald Trump's inauguration, but have since dropped nearly 62%.
The amount of searches for “Crypto” on Google has dropped by almost 62% since the end of January. Source: Google Trends
At the time of publication, “Crypto” had a Google search score of 38, 22% below its January history high.
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This article does not include investment advice or recommendations. All investment and trading movements include risk and readers must do their own research when making decisions.
