Bitcoin (BTC) The recent breach of the $100,000 price level has sparked debate among analysts about market conditions and potential risks. Analysts say some indicators suggest caution, while others point to further upside.
Matthew Siegel, head of digital asset research at VanEck, said there are only a few indicators pointing to a market peak, leaving room for potential price increases.
Siegel pointed to a low MVRV Z-score, subdued “Bitcoin” search interest, relatively stable BTC market dominance, and a simple moving average multiplier that remains in the moderate range.
He also He acknowledged that funding rates have increased, but stressed that this situation has continued without causing a major market correction.
call for attention
In contrast, recent reports glass node Highlight indicators that call for your attention. The report highlighted the risks posed by the current redistribution of Bitcoin supply and the intensification of profit-taking behavior.
The realized supply density metric is below 10%, reflecting that a significant portion of Bitcoin's circulating supply currently exists as unrealized gains. Historically, this situation has been associated with increased market volatility.
Another metric of concern is the supply to income ratio (PSIP). This indicates that more than 90% of Bitcoin's supply is currently profitable, a level that Glassnode classifies as “very high risk.” This stage often precedes a market correction as investors seek to lock in profits.
Moreover, the Net Unrealized Gain/Loss (NUPL) has spiked to 0.59, indicating extreme market optimism, which could increase sell vulnerability. Similarly, the Realized Profit Loss Ratio (RPLR) is above 9, indicating intense profit-taking activity that may overwhelm market demand and lead to a decline.
Redistribution
The redistribution of Bitcoin’s supply further illustrates these trends. From March to early November, Bitcoin traded within a narrow range of $54,000 to $74,000.
This long-term consolidation allowed supply to move to a higher cost base, with approximately 15% of circulating supply concentrated within this range. While this reflects increased market resilience, it also amplifies the risks associated with the majority of supply now producing profits.
Despite these warning signs, several indicators suggest market pressures may ease. Realized profits, which measure USD gains from on-chain transactions, plummeted from $10.5 billion to $2.5 billion per day during the rally, a 76% decline.
Furthermore, perpetual futures funding rates, which indicate leverage demand, are starting to stabilize, indicating that speculative activity may cool down. Mixed signals from these indicators highlight the complexity of Bitcoin's current market situation.
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